In the first in a series of pieces by World Class Top 10 bartenders, Alex Goacher tells us how the Manchester bar scene is changing. In this current economic climate, only the strongest - and most memorable - will survive, he says.

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Since moving to Manchester four years ago, that landscape has changed dramatically. New venues have opened, more have closed, and some have managed to do both within the same period.

To indulge my half-degree in economics for a moment, I reckon Deansgate offers an interesting cross section of what's happening across the wider hospitality industry.

You can think of Manchester’s venues as fitting into four categories:

- Prime location independents

- High-end venues

- Fast, budget-friendly operators

- Middle-of-the-road chains

The prime location independent thrives on community, personality and social media. Guests aren't buying a coffee or cocktail, they're buying uniqueness, something worth photographing and sharing. These venues can charge above-average prices because they're selling an experience that's difficult to replicate.

The high-end, experience-led venue pursues glamour, indulgence and escapism. Whether it's a luxury restaurant or specialist cocktail bar, guests willingly pay the price for a special occasion or pure escapism, if only for an evening, a few tax brackets higher.

At the opposite end are fast, budget-friendly venues. Their biggest selling point is value. In today's economic climate, where household budgets are under constant pressure, these businesses provide the feeling of going out without causing financial guilt. The experience isn't necessarily the priority in this scenario, affordability is.

Finally, we arrive at the middle-of-the-road chains. They sit somewhere between cheap and premium, between functional and memorable. Their greatest strength is familiarity. For tourists or occasional visitors, there's comfort in recognising a brand they've seen in places across the country.

The winners and losers

It seems obvious to me that the middle-of-the-road chains are destined to fail - unless they adapt. When the going gets tough for a country in economic turmoil (as with the UK post-covid), people will cut back on certain services while maintaining others. We call this the shift from 'wants' to 'needs'.

The attempt to satisfy everyday needs explains the continued success of our cheap venues, as a clear switch happens, but to understand where our independents and experience-led venues can succeed, we need to look at something deeper called “The Lipstick Effect”.

This term coined by economists tells of a scenario during recession when individuals will grant themselves small luxuries that are over budget, to maintain some normality in their lifestyle. These goods act as an anchor to the life they previously had, or indeed maybe the life they aspire to still lead.

In a hospitality context, this ties in nicely with our independent coffee shops and cocktail bars. Unique experience draws guests away from the middle ground chains. Super high-end venues can also grab these guests, but they need to be careful - they're often too expensive to qualify as an everyday necessity, yet not always distinctive enough to justify being someone's indulgence purchase. They occupy an increasingly uncomfortable place where price, quality and experience don't outweigh one another. While there is a lack of disposable income in the country, these high-end venues can be at risk unless they adapt.

As I reach the end of Deansgate – and my journey through this microcosm of Britain’s hospitality – it strikes me that whatever the venue sells, there’s a common thread that connects the successful. The product isn’t your coffee, cocktail or dish, your product is the experience.

Focus on that, utilise social media to shout about it, and don’t be afraid of adapting to survive. Guests don’t reward average experiences; they reward memorable ones.